Hiring and Keeping Technicians in a Market Short 110,000 Workers

There are an estimated 110,000 unfilled HVAC technician positions in the United States right now. Approximately 23,000 technicians leave the industry every year—through retirement, burnout, or career changes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 8% employment growth for HVAC mechanics and installers through 2034. The math is clear: the labor shortage is not getting better. It is getting worse.

For trade contractors, this is not just an operational headache—it is a valuation issue. Buyers and PE firms explicitly evaluate technician retention rates as a key indicator of business health. A company that cannot keep its technicians is a company that cannot maintain its revenue, its customer satisfaction, or its growth trajectory. Workforce stability is one of the top eight factors in the PE evaluation checklist.

Why Technicians Leave

Exit interviews and industry surveys point to the same reasons consistently:

• Compensation is not competitive. PE-backed companies are offering 15–20% pay increases to technicians in their first year post-acquisition. If you have not adjusted your rates in two years, you are falling behind the market—and your best technicians know it because recruiters are calling them.
• No visible career path. Technicians who do not see a ladder—apprentice to technician to senior tech to lead to supervisor to manager—eventually look for companies that offer one. The ambitious ones leave first, which is the worst possible outcome.
• Poor management and dispatch. Unfair call distribution, poor scheduling that creates excessive drive time, no recognition for good work, and managers who do not listen. The old saying applies perfectly: people do not leave companies, they leave managers.
• Burnout. On-call rotations without adequate rotation, emergency work stacked on top of full schedules, physical toll without adequate recovery time. Without deliberate workload management, even well-paid technicians burn out within a few years.
• No investment in training. Technicians who feel stagnant in their skills leave to find environments where they can grow. The ones who stay stagnant cost you in callbacks, customer complaints, and missed upsell opportunities.

How to Compete for Talent

Compensation: Know your market

Conduct a market survey. What are the PE-backed platforms in your area paying experienced technicians? What is the going rate for your specialty in your zip code? If you are more than 10% below market rate, you are in active danger of losing your best people to competitors who will gladly pay the difference.

Factor in the full cost of replacing a technician: recruiting expenses, training time, lost productivity during the ramp-up period, potential customer disruption. That total typically runs $15,000–$30,000 per hire. Paying an existing technician $5,000 more per year to stay is almost always cheaper than replacing them.

Career development: Build the ladder

Create clear levels with defined criteria for advancement: apprentice, technician, senior technician, lead technician, field supervisor. Specify what it takes to move up—certifications, tenure, performance metrics, customer feedback scores. Offer financial support for certification programs and manufacturer training. Cross-train technicians in additional trades where possible.

The technician who earns their plumbing license through your company's investment is more loyal than the one you recruited already certified. That loyalty has real financial value.

Culture: Make it a place people want to work

Monthly recognition for top performers. Team meals or outings quarterly. Birthday and work anniversary acknowledgments. A clean, organized shop. Modern trucks and quality tools. These investments sound soft—they are not. Technicians who feel valued and respected stay longer than technicians who feel like interchangeable parts in a machine. PE-backed platforms are spending real money on culture programs because the data shows it directly reduces turnover.

Incentive structures that align interests

• $25–$50 bonus per service agreement sold
• $50 bonus per 5-star online review that mentions the technician by name
• 10% commission on upsell and add-on revenue above a base threshold
• Monthly team bonus when revenue or customer satisfaction targets are met
• Annual retention bonus paid after 12 consecutive months of service
• Tool allowance or tool purchase program for senior technicians

Recruiting pipeline: Build your own

Partner with local trade schools and community colleges. Offer paid apprenticeship programs with a clear path to full technician status. Sponsor students in HVAC or plumbing programs. Visit career fairs at high schools. The best long-term hiring strategy is not competing for the same limited pool of experienced technicians that everyone else is chasing—it is building your own pipeline of trained, loyal team members who grow up in your culture.

The Valuation Impact

Buyers explicitly evaluate technician tenure and turnover during due diligence. A business with an average technician tenure of 5+ years is materially more valuable than one where technicians cycle every 18 months. Low turnover signals stable operations, consistent customer experience, lower ongoing recruiting costs, and reduced training overhead—all of which reduce buyer risk and support a higher acquisition multiple.

Conversely, high technician turnover is a red flag that can reduce your multiple by a full turn or more. If a buyer sees 40% annual turnover, they know that post-acquisition retention will be expensive and uncertain—and they will price that risk into their offer.

The Bottom Line

In a market short 110,000 workers, your technicians are your most valuable and most vulnerable asset. Investing in competitive compensation, career development, workplace culture, and a recruiting pipeline is not just good management—it is a direct investment in your business value. The contractors who solve the talent equation first will have both the strongest operations and the highest exit multiples. Everyone else will be scrambling to staff trucks while their best people walk across the street.